Illusions in Regression Analysis
نویسنده
چکیده
Soyer and Hogarth’s article, “The Illusion of Predictability,” shows that diagnostic statistics that are commonly provided with regression analysis lead to confusion, reduced accuracy, and overconfidence. Even highly competent researchers are subject to these problems. This overview examines the Soyer-Hogarth findings in light of prior research on illusions associated with regression analysis. It also summarizes solutions that have been proposed over the past century. These solutions would enhance the value of regression analysis. Disciplines Business | Social and Behavioral Sciences Comments Armstrong, J.S. (2011). Illusions in Regression Analysis. Forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting, 2012. This working paper is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/173 Illusions in Regression Analysis J. Scott Armstrong ([email protected]) The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia PA 19104 Forthcoming, International Journal of Forecasting, 2012
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